Global summary

Identifying changes in the reproduction number, rate of spread, and doubling time during the course of the COVID-19 outbreak whilst accounting for potential biases due to delays in case reporting both nationally and subnationally. These results are impacted by changes in testing effort, increases and decreases in testing effort will increase and decrease reproduction number estimates respectively (see Methods for further explanation).

Using data available up to the: 2020-04-25

Note that it takes time for infection to cause symptoms, to get tested for SARS-CoV-2 infection, for a positive test to return and ultimately to enter the case data presented here. In other words, today’s case data are only informative of new infections about two weeks ago. This is reflected in the plots below, which are by date of infection.

Expected daily confirmed cases by country


Figure 1: The results of the latest reproduction number estimates (based on estimated confirmed cases with a date of infection on the 2020-04-16) can be summarised by whether confirmed cases are likely increasing or decreasing. This represents the strength of the evidence that the reproduction number in each region is greater than or less than 1, respectively (see the methods for details). Countries with fewer than 60 confirmed cases reported on a single day are not included in the analysis (light grey) as there is not enough data to reliably estimate the reproduction number.

Summary of latest reproduction number and confirmed case count estimates by date of infection


Figure 1: Confirmed cases with date of infection on the 2020-04-16 and the time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number (light bar = 90% credible interval; dark bar = the 50% credible interval.). Regions are ordered by the number of expected daily confirmed cases and shaded based on the expected change in daily confirmed cases. The horizontal dotted line indicates the target value of 1 for the effective reproduction no. required for control and a single case required for elimination. The vertical dashed line indicates the date of report generation.

Reproduction numbers over time in the six regions expected to have the most new confirmed cases


Figure 2: Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number (light ribbon = 90% credible interval; dark ribbon = the 50% credible interval) in the regions expected to have the highest number of new confirmed cases. Estimates are shown up to the 2020-04-16 from when forecasts are shown. These should be considered indicative only. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by translucency with increased translucency corresponding to reduced confidence. The horizontal dotted line indicates the target value of 1 for the effective reproduction no. required for control. The vertical dashed line indicates the date of report generation.

Reported confirmed cases and their estimated date of infection in the six regions expected to have the most new confirmed cases


Figure 3: Confirmed cases by date of report (bars) and their estimated date of infection (light ribbon = 90% credible interval; dark ribbon = the 50% credible interval) in the regions expected to have the highest number of new confirmed cases. Estimates are shown up to the 2020-04-16 from when forecasts are shown. These should be considered indicative only. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by translucency with increased translucency corresponding to reduced confidence. The vertical dashed line indicates the date of report generation.

Reproduction numbers over time in all regions


Figure 4: Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number (light ribbon = 90% credible interval; dark ribbon = the 50% credible interval) in all regions. Estimates are shown up to the 2020-04-16 from when forecasts are shown. These should be considered indicative only. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by translucency with increased translucency corresponding to reduced confidence. The horizontal dotted line indicates the target value of 1 for the effective reproduction no. required for control. The vertical dashed line indicates the date of report generation.

Reported confirmed cases and their estimated date of infection in all regions

Figure 5: Confirmed cases by date of report (bars) and their estimated date of infection (light ribbon = 90% credible interval; dark ribbon = the 50% credible interval) in all regions. Estimates are shown up to the 2020-04-16 from when forecasts are shown. These should be considered indicative only. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by translucency with increased translucency corresponding to reduced confidence. The vertical dashed line indicates the date of report generation.

Latest estimates (as of the 2020-04-16)

Table 1: Latest estimates (as of the 2020-04-16) of the number of confirmed cases by date of infection, the effective reproduction number, and the doubling time (when negative this corresponds to the halving time) in each region. The mean and 90% credible interval is shown.
Country/Region New confirmed cases by infection date Expected change in daily cases Effective reproduction no. Doubling time (days)
Afghanistan 82 (47 – 149) Likely increasing 1.2 (0.9 – 1.7) 26 (6.8 – -9.8)
Algeria 108 (85 – 139) Unsure 1 (0.8 – 1.1) -320 (11 – -10)
Argentina 122 (99 – 173) Unsure 1.1 (0.8 – 1.3) 41 (8.8 – -16)
Armenia 75 (49 – 107) Likely increasing 1.2 (0.9 – 1.6) 19 (6.7 – -19)
Australia 20 (6 – 34) Likely decreasing 0.7 (0.3 – 1.1) -9.3 (8.3 – -2.8)
Austria 93 (65 – 155) Unsure 1 (0.6 – 1.3) -90 (12 – -9.1)
Azerbaijan 44 (13 – 97) Unsure 1.1 (0.6 – 1.4) 83 (5.9 – -6.6)
Bahrain 156 (96 – 224) Increasing 1.5 (1 – 1.9) 7.9 (4.8 – 30)
Bangladesh 458 (356 – 517) Increasing 1.2 (1.1 – 1.4) 18 (9.2 – 270)
Belarus 716 (599 – 851) Increasing 1.3 (1.1 – 1.4) 13 (8.9 – 22)
Belgium 1113 (1011 – 1219) Likely decreasing 0.9 (0.9 – 1) -39 (29000 – -20)
Bolivia 67 (31 – 116) Increasing 1.5 (1.1 – 2.4) 9.6 (3.4 – -31)
Bosnia and Herzegovina 59 (22 – 103) Unsure 1.2 (0.7 – 1.8) 21 (4.8 – -8.1)
Brazil 3145 (3042 – 3333) Increasing 1.1 (1.1 – 1.2) 32 (20 – 66)
Bulgaria 78 (43 – 130) Increasing 1.5 (1.2 – 2) 8.9 (4.5 – -340)
Cameroon 103 (60 – 133) Likely increasing 1.6 (1.1 – 2.2) 6.4 (3.8 – 22)
Canada 1771 (1579 – 1945) Likely increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.2) 62 (23 – -130)
Chile 465 (397 – 541) Unsure 1.1 (1 – 1.2) 57 (16 – -33)
China 33 (5 – 69) Likely decreasing 0.6 (0.1 – 1.2) -3.9 (150 – -1.7)
Colombia 256 (209 – 283) Increasing 1.2 (1.1 – 1.4) 15 (8.3 – 86)
Cote dIvoire 64 (34 – 102) Likely increasing 1.3 (0.9 – 2) 14 (5 – -15)
Croatia 51 (28 – 88) Unsure 1.3 (0.7 – 1.9) 11 (4.3 – -18)
Cuba 67 (43 – 133) Unsure 1.1 (0.9 – 1.5) 67 (7.3 – -11)
Czechia 109 (78 – 159) Unsure 0.9 (0.7 – 1.3) -48 (17 – -8.2)
Denmark 180 (148 – 295) Unsure 1 (0.8 – 1.2) -500 (13 – -14)
Djibouti 68 (12 – 192) Unsure 0.9 (0.4 – 1.5) -13 (7.2 – -4)
Dominican Republic 208 (170 – 266) Unsure 0.9 (0.8 – 1.1) -46 (24 – -12)
Ecuador 403 (331 – 475) Unsure 1 (0.9 – 1.2) 29 (12 – -69)
Egypt 212 (172 – 238) Likely increasing 1.2 (1 – 1.3) 20 (9.5 – -100)
Equatorial Guinea 46 (22 – 74) Increasing 2.2 (1.3 – 3) 3.5 (2 – 11)
Estonia 39 (4 – 101) Unsure 1.4 (0.8 – 2) -160 (4.5 – -3.5)
Finland 129 (102 – 186) Unsure 1 (0.8 – 1.3) 280 (9.8 – -15)
France 1925 (1751 – 2069) Unsure 1 (0.9 – 1) -74 (81 – -26)
Germany 2184 (2052 – 2301) Decreasing 0.9 (0.9 – 1) -27 (-60 – -17)
Ghana 76 (39 – 111) Unsure 0.9 (0.7 – 1.3) -140 (9.1 – -8.1)
Greece 77 (48 – 116) Increasing 1.7 (1.2 – 2.2) 5.9 (3.6 – 25)
Guinea 86 (53 – 116) Likely increasing 1.3 (1 – 1.7) 13 (6.2 – 1500)
Honduras 34 (7 – 64) Unsure 1.7 (0.6 – 3) 9.3 (2.8 – -6.3)
Hungary 98 (58 – 140) Unsure 1.1 (0.7 – 1.4) 43 (6.6 – -10)
Iceland 19 (3 – 90) Unsure 1.2 (0.4 – 2.2) 55 (3.1 – -3)
India 1529 (1346 – 1789) Increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.2) 28 (17 – 110)
Indonesia 345 (284 – 413) Likely increasing 1.1 (0.9 – 1.2) 67 (18 – -39)
Iran 1148 (1089 – 1226) Decreasing 0.9 (0.8 – 0.9) -27 (-91 – -16)
Iraq 43 (17 – 78) Unsure 1.3 (0.8 – 1.8) 21 (4.7 – -7.1)
Ireland 653 (556 – 716) Unsure 1 (0.9 – 1.1) -79 (35 – -19)
Israel 325 (256 – 397) Unsure 1.1 (0.9 – 1.2) 61 (13 – -30)
Italy 2858 (2730 – 3006) Decreasing 0.9 (0.9 – 1) -57 (-290 – -33)
Japan 444 (403 – 493) Likely decreasing 0.9 (0.9 – 1) -53 (76 – -19)
Kazakhstan 154 (121 – 201) Likely increasing 1.2 (0.9 – 1.4) 18 (7.7 – -53)
Kosovo 51 (20 – 85) Likely increasing 1.3 (0.6 – 1.8) 14 (3.3 – -6.8)
Kuwait 163 (96 – 242) Likely increasing 1.2 (0.9 – 1.4) 18 (6.5 – -26)
Kyrgyzstan 28 (2 – 47) Unsure 1.3 (0.5 – 1.7) 25 (3.8 – -4.7)
Latvia 27 (3 – 68) Unsure 1.4 (0.3 – 2.2) 13 (2.5 – -2.8)
Lebanon 14 (0 – 33) Likely increasing 1.8 (0.7 – 3.1) 2.7 (0.3 – -0.42)
Lithuania 26 (7 – 41) Likely decreasing 0.8 (0.5 – 1.1) -9.3 (12 – -3.1)
Luxembourg 45 (13 – 77) Unsure 1 (0.6 – 1.5) -560 (6.9 – -6)
Malaysia 79 (52 – 101) Unsure 0.9 (0.6 – 1.2) -36 (12 – -7.3)
Mexico 1046 (852 – 1209) Increasing 1.3 (1.2 – 1.4) 12 (8.7 – 18)
Moldova 156 (112 – 192) Likely increasing 1.2 (0.9 – 1.4) 25 (8.7 – -27)
Morocco 188 (147 – 230) Unsure 1 (0.9 – 1.1) -210 (22 – -16)
Netherlands 814 (753 – 886) Decreasing 0.9 (0.8 – 0.9) -25 (-85 – -15)
New Zealand 12 (0 – 44) Unsure 1.3 (0.1 – 2.6) -3.7 (1.2 – -0.39)
Niger 26 (0 – 48) Unsure 1.4 (0.8 – 1.9) -6.5 (0.98 – -3.2)
Nigeria 114 (74 – 195) Increasing 1.4 (1.1 – 1.7) 9.4 (5.1 – -360)
North Macedonia 31 (12 – 64) Unsure 0.8 (0.6 – 1.3) -9.6 (14 – -3.4)
Norway 83 (48 – 123) Unsure 0.9 (0.7 – 1.2) -62 (12 – -9.2)
Oman 114 (57 – 181) Unsure 1.1 (0.8 – 1.3) 23 (6.4 – -11)
Pakistan 723 (671 – 817) Increasing 1.2 (1.1 – 1.3) 17 (12 – 30)
Palestine 12 (1 – 38) Likely increasing 1.5 (0.6 – 2.3) 18 (2.6 – -3.2)
Panama 180 (124 – 201) Unsure 1.1 (0.9 – 1.3) 77 (13 – -18)
Peru 1276 (1143 – 1419) Increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.2) 71 (23 – -79)
Philippines 196 (153 – 343) Unsure 0.9 (0.7 – 1.3) -55 (14 – -9.9)
Poland 336 (269 – 398) Unsure 0.9 (0.8 – 1.1) -40 (42 – -14)
Portugal 516 (438 – 577) Likely decreasing 1 (0.8 – 1) -72 (61 – -22)
Puerto Rico 55 (35 – 76) Unsure 1.1 (0.6 – 1.4) 27 (6.7 – -12)
Qatar 649 (561 – 738) Increasing 1.2 (1.1 – 1.3) 16 (11 – 31)
Romania 374 (316 – 455) Unsure 1 (0.9 – 1.1) 140 (20 – -33)
Russia 5320 (4924 – 5564) Increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.2) 32 (21 – 75)
Saudi Arabia 1152 (998 – 1295) Increasing 1.2 (1 – 1.3) 21 (14 – 44)
Senegal 46 (27 – 64) Increasing 1.7 (1.2 – 2.3) 6.6 (3.4 – 39)
Serbia 235 (189 – 306) Decreasing 0.8 (0.7 – 0.9) -14 (-50 – -8.2)
Singapore 1094 (995 – 1200) Increasing 1.3 (1.1 – 1.4) 14 (10 – 21)
Slovakia 75 (13 – 129) Unsure 1.1 (0.7 – 1.6) 60 (4.6 – -8.2)
Somalia 59 (8 – 128) Likely increasing 1.7 (0.5 – 3) 7.3 (2.5 – -20)
South Africa 249 (194 – 358) Increasing 1.3 (1 – 1.5) 15 (8.8 – 46)
South Korea 28 (7 – 49) Unsure 1.3 (0.4 – 2.2) 110 (3.5 – -3.2)
Spain 4987 (4724 – 5219) Increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.1) 61 (34 – 300)
Sweden 757 (636 – 893) Increasing 1.2 (1 – 1.3) 28 (13 – -460)
Switzerland 200 (149 – 250) Decreasing 0.7 (0.6 – 0.9) -10 (-23 – -6.3)
Thailand 22 (10 – 47) Unsure 0.9 (0.5 – 1.1) -36 (6.5 – -4.9)
Tunisia 18 (1 – 37) Likely decreasing 0.8 (0.5 – 1.2) -6.9 (7.9 – -2.1)
Turkey 3452 (3195 – 3725) Decreasing 0.9 (0.9 – 0.9) -30 (-56 – -21)
Ukraine 512 (454 – 566) Likely increasing 1.1 (0.9 – 1.2) 75 (18 – -33)
United Arab Emirates 530 (474 – 617) Increasing 1.1 (1.1 – 1.2) 22 (12 – 120)
United Kingdom 4736 (4616 – 4869) Decreasing 1 (0.9 – 1) -68 (-400 – -34)
United Republic of Tanzania 67 (7 – 160) Unsure 1.6 (0.3 – 3.3) 8.9 (2.2 – -5.7)
United States of America 24614 (24132 – 25141) Decreasing 0.9 (0.9 – 0.9) -33 (-41 – -27)
Uzbekistan 56 (40 – 81) Likely decreasing 0.8 (0.5 – 1.1) -12 (29 – -5.1)